[포스터] Nonpoint Pollution Loading Forecast in the Dongbok Stream Subwatershed for the Juam Dam Watershed Management Considering Climate Change Scenario Uncertainty |
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학술지명 제8차 IWA-ASPIRE
저자 이혜숙,정선아,이상욱,장수형
발표일 2019-10-31
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The ecosystems of dam reservoirs are particularly influenced by watershed pollutants. Nutrient loading is an important aspect of reservoir ecosystems that can be affected by climate change. The effects of climate change on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex and uncertain. Such uncertainty derives mainly from parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and uncertainty regarding future climatic conditions. Therefore, this study assessed the impacts of climate change on nutrient pollutants of the Juam Dam watershed in Korea using a watershed model with consideration of GCM uncertainties. This study explored the effects of climate change on nutrients in the Juam Dam watershed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF). Eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to investigate the impact of climate change for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Based on an eight-model ensemble, we observed increasing trends in minimum (maximum) temperature at rates of 0.9, 1.8, and 2.2 (0.9, 1.7, and 2.2) °C/period under RCP 4.5 and of 1.0, 2.4, and 4.1 (1.0, 2.3, and 4.0) °C/period under RCP 8.5. Annual rainfall was predicted to increase by 5.0%, 8.2%, and 10.8% (4.8%, 10.5%, and 19.8%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). The consequences of increased rainfall and temperature were reflected in the annual T-N loadings per unit area that were projected to increase by 14.8%, 16.0%, and 23.1% (16.2%, 18.3%, and 31.7%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) when compared with historical data (1976?2005). The annual T-P loadings per unit area were projected to increase by 14.8%, 16.4%, and 23.1% (15.5%, 19.3%, and 32.7%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). These findings were most evident in subwatersheds with a high ratio of agricultural land. Further studies should consider future land use changes and evaluate the impact of applying the HSPF model under different climate change scenarios. Additionally, we intend to evaluate the seasonal variations of pollution loadings within the Juam Dam watershed. Based on the findings of this study, which will be utilized for preliminary watershed management of the Juam Dam watershed in the future, it is recommended the HSPF watershed model be applied to nonpoint pollution management. |