[구두발표]기후변화 시나리오 불확실성을 고려한 댐유역의 비점오염원 평가 |
---|
학술지명 한국습지학회
저자 이혜숙,이상욱,장수형,정선아
발표일 2019-08-19
|
Nonpoint management is an important aspect of watershed water quality. Especialy, nonpoint pollutant can be affected by climate change which are complex and uncertain. Such uncertainty derives mainly from model parameter uncertainty and uncertainty regarding future climatic conditions. Therefore, this study assessed the impacts of climate change on nutrient pollutants of the Juam Dam watershed in Korea using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) with consideration of GCM uncertainties. Eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to investigate the impact of climate change for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The consequences of increased rainfall and temperature affected in the annual T-N loadings per unit area. The annual T-N loadings per unit area were projected to increase by .8%, 16.0%, and 23.1% (16.2%, 18.3%, and 31.7%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) when compared with historical data (1976-2005). The annual T-P loadings per unit area were projected to increase by 14.8%, 16.4%, and 23.1% (15.5%, 19.3%, and 32.7%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). These findings were most evident in subwatersheds with a high ratio of agricultural land. Further studies should consider future land use changes and evaluate the impact of applying the HSPF model under different climate change scenarios. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended the this results and methods be applied to nonpoint pollution management. |