PMP ESTIMATION USING GIS-BASED RAIN SEARCH METHOD |
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학술지명 HIC2016
저자 김연수,김영규,정관수,오성렬
발표일 2016-08-22
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Researches on performing spatial analysis of rainfall in South Korea are limited. Analyses on duration increase, bearing and projection of heavy rainfall is very complex. Since the movement of heavy rainfall is predictable like typhoons DAD analysis method is usually utilized in the center of a basin. However, utilizing DAD in bigger basin area or longer rainfall duration causes an increase in the error of average areal rainfall and thus the accuracy of the results also decreases. Therefore, a revised DAD analysis method is necessary to determine accurate values of PMP and PMF. Furthermore, as the distributed rainfall runoff model improves, the utilization of spatial distribution rainfall field and required radar rainfall data to run the model also increases. And thus, the improvement of the DAD analysis method requires the application of grid-base rainfall data. In this study, PMP estimation and the newly revised DAD analysis method were compared to determine the accuracy of the forecasts using both analysis methods. By utilizing the new DAD analysis method, PMP was estimated through this process: first, converting point rainfall data to a distributed areal rainfall data; second, a GIS-based rainfall search method was developed through the utilization of average point-tracking; and lastly, the PMP was calculated by considering moisture maximization and storm transposition. |