Hydrologic Impact of Regional Climate Change for the Shared Rivers with North and South Korea |
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학술지명 ASCE-EWRI
저자 허영택,장수형,이재응
발표일 2016-05-23
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South Korea has been still suffering from water-related disasters in shared rivers with North Korea. More than 50 percent and upstream of shared rivers are located in North Korea. Hence, water resources and flood risks are totally depending on how the hydraulic structures such as large dams are operated by North Korea. Unfortunately, climate conditions over shared rivers, especially upstream parts, are vulnerable to flood and drought. However, there is no information of hydro-climate data and hydraulic structures in North Korea. As a pilot study, the possibility to assess the hydrologic impact on shared rivers with North Korea for the future climate change conditions is investigates. To this end, a statistical regression method with MOS (Model Output Statistics) corrections at every downscaling step was developed and applied for downscaling the spatially-coarse Global Climate Model Projections (GCMPs) from CCSM3 and CSIRO with respect to precipitation and air temperature into 0.1 degree (about 11 km) spatial grid over study regions. The spatially archived hydro-climate data sets such as Willmott, GsMap and APHRODITE datasets were used for MOS corrections by means of monthly climatology between observations and downscaled values. Precipitation and air temperature downscaled in this study were validated against ground observations and then future climate simulation results on precipitation and air temperature were evaluated for the projections. |