Climate Change Effects on Rain-Snow Phase Transition over Northern California in the 21st Century |
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학술지명 ASCE
저자 Ishida,장수형,Trinh,Ohara,Kavvas
발표일 2015-08-07
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Climate change effects on rain-snow phase transition were investigated over Northern California during the 21th Century based on projected future scenarios. The American River watershed (ARW), the Yuba River watershed (YRW), and the Upper Feather River watershed (UFRW) are selected as targeted watersheds in Northern California. As the projected future scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, A2, and B1 scenarios projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are selected. Since GCM outputs are too coarse to reconstruct geomorphological effects on snow simulation, the dynamical downscaling technique, which can also provide variables enough for snow simulation, was utilized. On the other hand, the snow model used in this study was applied to a historical period based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis I dataset in order to validate the snow model. The simulated results by the snow model show good agreements with snow water equivalent at observation stations over the study watersheds. After the validation, the snow model was applied to the future scenarios. The snow simulation results show that the ratio of snow to precipitation gradually decreases over all over the three watersheds during the 21th century although the amount of decrease is small in high elevation areas. |