Assessment of GCM and Scenario Uncertainties under Future Climate Change Conditions |
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학술지명 KICEM
저자 장수형,황만하,박진혁,임광섭
발표일 2015-10-13
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GCM and scenario uncertainties are first investigated for 5 major watersheds (Han River, Paldang dam, Namhan River, Bukhan River and Imjin River watersheds). As a result of this study, it is found that CCSM3-based annual precipitation increases linearly with respect to the 10-year moving average values while CSIRO-based precipitation does not show much of trend. The results from annual DJF mean precipitation show a similar trend with respect to their 10-year moving average values. Both CCSM3- and CSIRO-based annual JJA mean precipitation do not show much of trend toward 21st century. In general, CCSM3-based precipitation values are slightly higher than CSIRO-based values with respect to their annual and annual JJA mean precipitation values, but CSIRO-based annual DJF mean precipitation values are slightly higher than CCSM3-based values. In case of mean air temperature between CCSM3 and CSIRO during 21st century, all of results show a clear trend in warming with the passage of time for 5 watersheds. However the upward trends from CCSM3-based values slow down toward end of 21st century while CSRIO-based values increases almost linearly |