우리나라 15개 다목적댐 유역별 A1B 기후변화 시나리오 분석 |
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학술지명 한국하천호수학회
저자 신재기,이혜숙,김홍래
발표일 2011-06-30
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This study analyzed the A1B climate change scenario provided by National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Korea, to investigate potential climate changes in watersheds of 15 multi-purpose dams in South Korea. The A1B climate change scenario is produced by Regional Climate Model (RCM) with 27 km horizontal grid spacings using a one-way nesting technique with Global Climate Model (GCM). Relative to present climate conditions (1971-2000), the modeled 10-year averaged daily temperatures at the watersheds of the 15 multi-purpose dams continuously increased to year 2100, whereas precipitation changes were varied regionally (north, central, and south regions of South Korea). At two watersheds located in Gangwon-province (north region), the modeled temporal variations of precipitation rapidly increased in the 2090's after a slow decrease that had occurred since the 2050's. At seven watersheds in the central region,including Gyeongsangbuk-province to Jeollanam-province, the modeled temporal variations of precipitation increase showed 10-year periodic changes. At six watersheds in the south region, the modeled temporal variations of precipitation increased since the 2070's after a rapid decrease in the 2060's. Compared to the climate conditions of the late of 20th century(1971-2000), the number of rainy days and precipitation intensity increased (3% and 6-12%, respectively) in the late 21st century (2071-2100). The frequency of precipitation events tended to increase with precipitation intensity in all regions. The frequency of heavy precipitation events (>50 mm d-1) increased with >100% in the north region, 60-100% in the central region, and 20-60% in the south region. |