Optimizing Operational Policies of a Korean Multireservoir System Using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction |
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학술지명 ASCE
저자 고익환,이은구,음형일,김영오
발표일 2007-11-20
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This study presents state-of-the-art optimization techniques for enhancing reservoir operations which use sampling stochastic dynamic programming SSDPwith ensemble streamflow prediction ESP. SSDP used with historical inflow scenarios SSDP/Hist derives an off-line optimal operating policy through a backward-moving solution procedure. In contrast, SSDP used with monthly forecasts of ESP SSSDP/ESPreoptimizes the off-line policy. These stochastic models are used to derive a monthly joint operating policy during the drawdown period of the Geum River multireservoir system in Korea. A cross-validation test of 1,900 simulation runs demonstrates that: 1proposed stochastic models that explicitly include inflow uncertainty are superior to those that do not; 2updating policy with ESP forecasts is appropriate in this reservoir system; 3the lower dam of the Geum River multireservoir system should maintain elevation of 66.5 m during the beginning of the drawdown period to avoid significant increase in the downstream water shortages; and 4forecasting accuracy may result in considerable effects on joint reservoir operations. |