| Flood prediction in the Namgang Dam basinusing a long short-term memory (LSTM)algorithm |
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학술지명 Korea journal of agricultural science
저자 허영택,김연수,변지선,안현욱,이승수
발표일 2020-09-29
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Flood prediction is an important issue to prevent damages by flood inundation caused byincreasing high-intensity rainfall with climate change. In recent years, machine learningalgorithms have been receiving attention in many scientific fields including hydrology,water resources, natural hazards, etc. The performance of a machine learning algorithmwas investigated to predict the water elevation of a river in this study. The aim of this studywas to develop a new method for securing a large enough lead time for flood defenses bypredicting river water elevation using the a long- short-term memory (LSTM) technique. Thewater elevation data at the Oisong gauging station were selected to evaluate its applicability.The test data were the water elevation data measured by K-water from 15 February 2013to 26 August 2018, approximately 5 years 6 months, at 1 hour intervals. To investigatethe predictability of the data in terms of the data characteristics and the lead time of theprediction data, the data were divided into the same interval data (group-A) and time averagedata (group-B) set. Next, the predictability was evaluated by constructing a total of 36 cases.Based on the results, group-A had a more stable water elevation prediction skill compared togroup-B with a lead time from 1 to 6 h. Thus, the LSTM technique using only measured waterelevation data can be used for securing the appropriate lead time for flood defense in a river. |