| 유역특성인자를 활용한 Sacramento 장기유출 모형의 매개변수 지역화 기법연구 |
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학술지명 한국수자원학회
저자 김기영,권현한,김태정,정가인
발표일 2015-10-30
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The simulation of natural streamflow at ungauged basins is one of the fundamental challenges in hydrologycommunity. The key to runoff simulation in ungauged basins is generally involved with a reliable parameterestimation in a rainfall-runoff model. However, the parameter estimation of the rainfall-runoff model is a complex issue due to an insufficient hydrologic data. This study aims to regionalize the parameters of a continuous rainfallrunoff model in conjunction with a Bayesian statistical technique to consider uncertainty more precisely associated with the parameters. First, this study employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for the estimation of the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model. The Sacramento model is calibrated against observed daily runoff data,and finally, the posterior density function of the parameters is derived. Second, we applied a multiple linear regression model to the set of the parameters with watershed characteristics, to obtain a functional relationship between pairs of variables. The proposed model was also validated with gauged watersheds in accordance with the efficiency criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement and the coefficient of correlation |